Monday, September 13, 2004

Kerry's chances in the Old North State

I just got a mass e-mail from Carolina for Kerry chairman P.J. Lusk (who is soon joining the BlueNC team)saying that Ed Turlington, co-chair of the Kerry-Edwards North Carolina campaign and former national chair of Edwards for President, is speaking at 8 p.m. tomorrow night (Monday) at in the UNC-Chapel Hill Student Union Auditorium.

Should be interesting to hear from one of the primary folks behind Edwards' surprising presidential bid, not to mention getting his take on the ticket's chances in North Carolina.

I bet he disagrees with Mike Munger, who responds to Ed Cone's latest column on what Kerry has to do to win in Edwards' turf. Munger, chair of Duke's poli sci dept., cites this Washington Post article as he buys into the oft-repeated media line that Kerry's realizing impending doom in North Carolina. He appears to agree with the
the assessment from the Post - and Bush-Cheney strategist Matthew Dowd, who is quoted as saying:

"They've basically decided they're competing in 14 states and sort of ceded, for all intents and purposes, states they were in at the beginning of the year and spent a lot of money in."
Most of the media coverage, from NPR to CNN, seems to have bought the Bush campaign's spin. But the media only cares about media buys when relating a campaign's effort. The Kerry campaign says that its decision to scale back ads in North Carolina and other challenging battleground states is just saving money so that they can compete closer to election day. But most news sources have still declared the TV scaleback a concession that the campaign can't be competitive in those states. Basically, the media is declaring itself the primary indicator of a campaign's ability to succeed.

But there's no reason for Kerry-Edwards to throw in the towels in North Carolina, nor any real evidence that they think so either. SurveyUSA shows the Democratic ticket polling within the margin of error in the state - and steadily cutting into Bush's lead, to boot. There's more staff involved in coordinated efforts to ensure Democratic victory in North Carolina too. Kerry was in Greensboro just last week - his third visit since naming Edwards to the ticket. Even after that announcement, no one expected to see another visit. Not to mention the fact that the Bush Administration still isn't doing anything to help North Carolinians struggling with a rough economy. I see no reason to dismiss the Kerry campaign's explanation for its reduction in TV time.

So the media's jumping the gun in declaring a Kerry surrender in North Carolina. And hopefully blogs, which are ever more helpful in keeping the traditional media on its toes, will be able to remind folks that less TV spots don't necessarily spell doom for Kerry-Edwards in the Old North State.

8 Comments:

At September 13, 2004 at 1:15 AM, Blogger PJ said...

Thus saith the Charlotte Observer:

Kerry's coming to Greensboro again on Tuesday. Guess he really likes Guilford County...

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/news/politics/9592630.htm

 
At September 14, 2004 at 7:25 PM, Blogger Ed Cone said...

this is not a second visit to gso, it's last week's visit.

 
At October 5, 2004 at 1:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hes got no chance in north carolina.. or anywhere else in the south besides maybe florida

 
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